Weekly Macro Market Intelligence · Week ending August 9, 2026

Growth softened.
Risk appetite did not.

July labor lost momentum while equity proxies rallied, weak-tail credit stayed stressed, and selected AI businesses paired extraordinary demand with extraordinary capital needs. The week argues for a dual ledger—not a one-line bull or bear verdict.

Research-only boundary. This is general research and education, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, hedge or allocate capital. Data reflect a Sunday, August 9 cutoff and may be revised. Consult a qualified financial professional for decisions specific to your circumstances.

Public-commentary context. Jordi Visser is treated as a public macro and market commentator; Gareth Soloway as a public technical-market commentator; Chris Camillo and Gavin Baker as public investors and market commentators; Michael Sikand as a technology investor and commentator; and Peter Diamandis as a technology and entrepreneurship commentator. Their views are attributed inputs—not authority or independent proof. The All-In Podcast and WOLF Financial items are described as public panel discussions where speaker-level attribution was not required for the reviewed source claim.

Ranked takeaways

36 ranked weekly takeaways

Thirty-six source-linked findings met the evidence threshold; additional rows would repeat evidence or elevate claims that were not sufficiently supported. Rank means research priority, not expected return.

01

July payrolls fell 23,000; May and June were revised down by 103,000 combined. Unemployment was 4.1%, participation 61.4%, and wage growth 3.2% year over year.

Official primaryNow–3mHighest research priority

Source: BLS Employment Situation release 08:30 ET, Aug. 7

Convergence / dependency
Independent macro evidence
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: Aug. 28 benchmark estimate / Falsifier: broad reacceleration in payrolls, hours and participation
Next research step
Track benchmark revision, claims, hours and Aug. payrolls.
02

The defensible AI regime is strong selected-company demand plus exceptional capital absorption—not “boom” or “bust” alone.

Primary evidence + synthesis1–8qHighest research priority

Source: Palantir Q2 company release
SpaceX Q2 company release
Amazon Q2 company release
CoreWeave Q1 company release

Convergence / dependency
Independent company disclosures; no cross-firm comparability
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: backlog conversion and utilization / Falsifier: cancellations, underutilization or financing stress
Next research step
Maintain a company-by-company demand, capex, cash-flow and credit bridge.
03

Public credit was segmented: CCC-and-lower OAS ended Aug. 6 at 10.17% versus 2.71% for broad high yield—a 7.46-point gap.

Market dataDays–3mHighest research priority

Source: FRED/ICE BofA CCC OAS Aug. 6 close
FRED/ICE BofA broad HY OAS Aug. 6 close

Convergence / dependency
Independent corroboration of segmentation
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: spread convergence by tightening CCC / Falsifier: broad HY widening toward weak-tail stress
Next research step
Add BB, single-B, CDX IG/HY, defaults and new-issue concessions.
04

ETF proxies all gained Aug. 3–7, but QQQ led (+3.28%) while equal-weight RSP (+1.37%) and IWM (+1.80%) also rose; this supports participation without proving durable breadth.

Market data1–8wHighest research priority

Source: Yahoo Finance SPY Aug. 3–7 adjusted closes
RSP Aug. 3–7
IWM Aug. 3–7
QQQ Aug. 3–7

Convergence / dependency
Partly supports commentator breadth claim; proxy-only
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: equal-weight/small-cap follow-through / Falsifier: renewed mega-cap-only leadership
Next research step
Calculate constituent advance/decline, new highs and sector participation.
05

The Federal Reserve held 3.50%–3.75% on July 29; three voters preferred a 25-basis-point hike. Policy was not an active easing impulse at the cutoff.

Official primary1–3mHighest research priority

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 2:00 ET, July 29

Convergence / dependency
Independent policy fact
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: next FOMC guidance / Falsifier: new easing action or facility
Next research step
Track official minutes, speeches, inflation expectations and real yields.
06

The late-July AI/factor shock may have formed a tactical low, but the “bottom is in” remains a probabilistic commentary claim.

CommentaryDays–8wResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser, public macro commentator 2:02–9:19

Convergence / dependency
Repeated commentary; not independent proof
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: follow-through and lower factor volatility / Falsifier: renewed lows or forced selling
Next research step
Pre-register horizon; score factor volatility, breadth and closes.
07

June job openings fell to 7.359 million; hires were 5.3 million, quits 3.2 million and layoffs/discharges 1.8 million. Cooling was visible without an abrupt churn break.

Official primary1–6mHighest research priority

Source: BLS JOLTS 10:00 ET, Aug. 4

Convergence / dependency
Independent macro evidence
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: July JOLTS / Falsifier: sharp layoffs jump or hiring collapse
Next research step
Compare three- and twelve-month hiring, quits and layoffs trends.
08

Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion (+93% y/y), 47% GAAP operating margin and 220 deals of at least $1 million; contract metrics retain option and termination caveats.

Company primary1–8qHighest research priority

Source: Palantir Q2 release Aug. 3 release

Convergence / dependency
Independent disclosure; issuer-reported
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: renewal/conversion and margin durability / Falsifier: cancellations or sharp deceleration
Next research step
Read 10-Q footnotes, contract quality, SBC and concentration.
09

Amazon paired AWS growth of 37% with trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow outflow of $7.6 billion after a $66.1 billion year-over-year increase in property-and-equipment purchases, primarily for AI.

Company primary1–8qHighest research priority

Source: Amazon Q2 release July 30 release

Convergence / dependency
Independent disclosure; issuer-reported
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: AWS growth and capex productivity / Falsifier: demand/cash conversion fails to catch investment
Next research step
Build quarterly AWS growth, capex, FCF and capacity commentary series.
10

SpaceX reported Q2 AI revenue of $2.561 billion, AI capex of $15.828 billion, AI operating loss of $1.257 billion and $14.1 billion of cloud contracted sales.

Company primary1–8qHighest research priority

Source: SpaceX Q2 release Aug. 4 release

Convergence / dependency
Independent disclosure; contract definition matters
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: contract conversion and utilization / Falsifier: impairment, cancellation or underutilization
Next research step
Separate GAAP economics, non-GAAP EBITDA, capex and segment cash demands.
11

CoreWeave reported Q1 revenue of $2.078 billion and $99.4 billion backlog, alongside a $740 million net loss and $536 million net interest expense.

Company primary1–8qHighest research priority

Source: CoreWeave Q1 release May 7 release

Convergence / dependency
Independent disclosure; backlog is not revenue
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: conversion and interest coverage / Falsifier: financing or delivery disruption
Next research step
Review debt maturities, customer concentration and contracted-power energization.
12

U.S.–Japan joint yen intervention was a real policy event; its implications for gold, Bitcoin or global liquidity remain hypotheses.

Official event + commentaryDays–6mResearch priority

Source: Reuters report Aug. 2
Jordi Visser interview 2:53–12:05

Convergence / dependency
Event corroborated; downstream asset link not
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: official follow-through and durable yen stabilization / Falsifier: rapid reversal without policy change
Next research step
Pull Treasury/MOF operation data and quantify FX/rates spillovers.
13

AI may raise single-stock and factor volatility faster than index volatility, lowering sustainable leverage even when headline indexes look calm.

Commentary hypothesis6–36mResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 18:23–29:48

Convergence / dependency
Single commentator; conceptually consistent with unwind
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: recurring factor speed-crashes / Falsifier: stable factor vol and leverage
Next research step
Measure equity-vs-index realized volatility and factor drawdown frequency.
14

Weak-tail credit and private-credit transmission deserve more attention than a blanket “credit is fine” conclusion.

Mixed evidenceDays–6mHighest research priority

Source: Jordi Visser 41:32–43:10; 53:09–54:06
FRED CCC OAS Aug. 6

Convergence / dependency
Commentary plus independent public-credit segmentation
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: defaults/private marks / Falsifier: sustained weak-tail tightening
Next research step
Add insurer exposure, private marks, defaults and refinancing calendar.
15

Selected hyperscaler disclosures contradicted an immediate compute-demand collapse, but do not prove every supplier or valuation is healthy.

Mixed evidence1–8qHighest research priority

Source: Jordi Visser 43:13–47:19
Amazon Q2 company release

Convergence / dependency
Commentary partly corroborated by selected filings
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: capacity monetization and backlog conversion / Falsifier: capex cuts or utilization declines
Next research step
Build issuer-by-issuer capacity, backlog, utilization and margins table.
16

Compute scarcity shifts attention toward outcome-per-dollar and token efficiency; durable provider moats remain unproven.

Commentary hypothesis1–12qResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 53:39–57:19

Convergence / dependency
Repeated within AI commentary chain; not independent
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: cost/quality benchmarks and pricing / Falsifier: abundant low-cost substitutable capacity
Next research step
Track workload-level inference cost, quality and switching behavior.
17

Agent adoption could accelerate inference, memory and power demand, but “unlimited demand” is not an empirical conclusion.

Commentary hypothesis1–12qResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 23:37–25:55; 29:16–30:32

Convergence / dependency
Commentary convergence; selected company demand is separate evidence
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: usage and paid workload growth / Falsifier: falling utilization or price
Next research step
Track tokens/workload, inference mix, memory pricing and power delivery.
18

AI may pressure generic software while rewarding proprietary data, workflow integration, security and distribution; category-wide displacement is not established.

Mixed evidence2–12qResearch priority

Source: All-In Podcast panel software/AI segment
Palantir Q2 company release

Convergence / dependency
Commentary plus one operating example; dependency remains high
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: retention/pricing/productivity data / Falsifier: incumbent resilience
Next research step
Compare SaaS cohorts: NRR, seat growth, AI monetization and margins.
19

Broad end-user productivity and profit evidence—not hyperscaler revenue alone—is the cleaner confirmation test for the AI buildout.

Commentary framework2–12qHighest research priority

Source: Chris Camillo, public investor and market commentator 1:20:40–1:22:27

Convergence / dependency
Single commentator; testable research standard
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: repeated customer disclosures of cost/revenue gains / Falsifier: capex without measured ROI
Next research step
Build a company-primary AI productivity evidence table.
20

The principal AI bear case is timing: capital commitments may outrun realized productivity and cash returns.

Scenario analysis2–12qHighest research priority

Source: Chris Camillo 1:43:00–1:45:38
Amazon Q2 company release

Convergence / dependency
Commentary converges with capital-intensity evidence; outcome unproven
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: ROI catches capex / Falsifier: persistent cash-flow compression
Next research step
Measure capex-to-incremental-gross-profit and utilization by issuer.
21

Humanoid and physical-AI activity is moving into early deployments, but mass commercialization and unit economics are not demonstrated.

Early commentary signal2–10yResearch priority

Source: WOLF Financial public panel deployment discussion
Peter Diamandis, technology and entrepreneurship commentator space/robotics discussion

Convergence / dependency
Commentary convergence; not independent commercial proof
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: repeat paid deployments, uptime and unit economics / Falsifier: pilot churn or reliability failure
Next research step
Track official contracts, delivered units, uptime, safety and ROI.
22

Domestic-origin components may gain procurement value in security-sensitive physical AI; “domestic” alone does not establish competitiveness.

Policy context + commentary1–8qResearch priority

Source: WOLF Financial panel supply-chain discussion
Federal Acquisition Regulation §52.204-25

Convergence / dependency
Policy context supports provenance sensitivity, not winners
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: awarded contracts/certifications / Falsifier: cost-performance gap
Next research step
Check award databases, BOM provenance, cybersecurity and certification.
23

AI investment attention is rotating from chips alone toward power, networking, memory, data centers and physical systems.

Commentary theme map1–12qResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser weekly capstone
Michael Sikand, technology investor and commentator public interview
Gavin Baker, technology investor and public commentator AI selloff discussion

Convergence / dependency
High commentator convergence; limited independent corroboration
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: segment earnings and bottleneck prices / Falsifier: overbuild and falling utilization
Next research step
Build layer-by-layer primary evidence; prevent circular citation.
24

Open-weight and lower-cost models can diffuse capability and pressure frontier economics, but security, quality and policy outcomes remain unresolved.

Commentary strategic question1–12qResearch priority

Source: All-In Podcast panel AI/open-model segment
Peter Diamandis public discussion open-weights discussion

Convergence / dependency
Commentator convergence only
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: adoption, cost/quality and policy / Falsifier: closed-model advantage persists
Next research step
Track official releases, enterprise usage, incidents and policy text.
25

Gold and Bitcoin as beneficiaries of fiscal/monetary credibility stress is a scenario framework, not a directional conclusion.

Commentary scenario1–12mWatch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 1:20–12:36
Jordi Visser capstone 1:18–1:41

Convergence / dependency
Same commentary chain; not independent corroboration
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: real yields, FX, flows and policy stress / Falsifier: stronger dollar/real yields with weak flows
Next research step
Measure real yields, dollar, ETF flows and on-chain/network data.
26

Gareth Soloway’s S&P 500 levels (~7,800 then ~8,100) were time-matched but not methodologically validated; they remain technical hypotheses.

Commentary + partial data checkDays–2wWatch priority

Source: Gareth Soloway, public technical-market commentator 3:57–5:48

Convergence / dependency
Single-source geometry; no forecast validation
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: pre-defined breakout / Falsifier: failed level; method itself needs prospective scoring
Next research step
Log levels before outcomes; define confirmation and compare with baselines.
27

A low VIX can signal complacency but is not a timed reversal indicator; Aug. 3–6 closes were 15.86, 16.50, 15.81 and 15.15.

Mixed evidenceDays–3mResearch priority

Source: Gareth Soloway 7:59–9:33
FRED VIX Aug. 3–6

Convergence / dependency
Commentary correctly limits timing; data verified
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: realized/term-structure stress / Falsifier: prolonged calm without reversal
Next research step
Add VIX curve, realized volatility and breadth; no timing rule from level alone.
28

Gareth’s gold 4,375 and silver 64 gates were traversed intraday but did not establish forecast skill or deterministic confirmation.

Commentary + partial data checkDays–2wWatch priority

Source: Gareth Soloway 11:23–12:52
Gold futures history Aug. 7
Silver futures history Aug. 7

Convergence / dependency
Single-source technical view; daily range only
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: pre-defined close/hold rules / Falsifier: ambiguous hindsight edits
Next research step
Prospectively define confirmation, expiry and baseline comparison.
29

Narrative acceleration plus leverage is a plausible risk monitor, but the episode supplied no reproducible methodology or false-positive rate.

Commentary frameworkDays–3mResearch priority

Source: Chris Camillo 1:03:30–1:04:04

Convergence / dependency
Single-source; manipulation claims excluded
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: reproducible metric leads volatility / Falsifier: noisy, non-predictive signals
Next research step
Specify data, metric, benchmark and false-positive evaluation.
30

Adversarial diligence—studying the strongest opposing case—is more transferable than copying a public position.

C process principleOngoingHighest research priority

Source: Chris Camillo 43:25–44:40

Convergence / dependency
Single-source process; independently sensible but not return evidence
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: documented thesis revisions / Falsifier: confirmation-only research
Next research step
Require a disconfirming-evidence section in every major thesis.
31

A private 100-name index plus rate-of-change and breadth deterioration could be testable, but without constituents, rules and history it is not a validated hedge signal.

C method proposal1–12m testResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 15:07 onward

Convergence / dependency
Single private-method description; dependency opaque
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: reproducible rules/out-of-sample test / Falsifier: lookahead, churn or no edge
Next research step
Paper-only backtest with fixed universe, anti-lookahead and costs.
32

MRVL/Marvell was not supported as a current-week consensus case in this week’s reviewed source set.

Not supported this weekThis weekNot included

Source: Michael Sikand public interview full inspected source; no MRVL mention

Convergence / dependency
No source attestation; unsupported
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: new in-window source plus primary evidence / Falsifier: continued absence
Next research step
Keep MRVL in a separate diligence packet, not this report.
33

The week did not resolve the AI-bubble debate. Selected demand evidence, extreme capex, weak-tail credit and uncertain terminal values coexist.

BSM synthesis1–12qHighest research priority

Source: BLS jobs Aug. 7
Company disclosures Q2
CCC OAS Aug. 6

Convergence / dependency
Independent data support both sides; false binary rejected
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: productivity/cash returns vs financing stress / Falsifier: decisive broad evidence one way
Next research step
Maintain dual demand/earnings and capital/credit ledgers.
34

Commentator convergence is not independent corroboration; repeated claims sharing the same event, guests or data chain are one dependency cluster.

Method noteOngoingHighest research priority

Source: Weekly source set reviewed source set
All-In panel reviewed source set

Convergence / dependency
Explicit dependency control
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: primary/independent proof / Falsifier: circular sourcing discovered
Next research step
Tag every claim as primary, independent, repeated, derived or unsupported.
35

The source display of September rate probabilities was a futures-implied CME FedWatch view, not a Federal Reserve forecast.

Commentary + methodologyDays–1mHighest research priority

Source: Gareth Soloway 2:55–3:54
CME FedWatch methodology method page

Convergence / dependency
Attribution corrected; probabilities are market-implied
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: repricing with data / Falsifier: none—interpretation boundary
Next research step
Label futures-implied probabilities and timestamp every capture.
36

The most consequential long-run market-structure question is whether AI compresses terminal-value confidence faster than it expands aggregate earnings.

Commentary strategic question1–5yResearch priority

Source: Jordi Visser 18:23–29:48
Gavin Baker public commentary AI selloff discussion

Convergence / dependency
Commentator convergence; no direct proof
Catalyst / falsifier
Catalyst: dispersion, revisions and durable margins / Falsifier: stable duration premiums and broad earnings gains
Next research step
Measure factor duration, dispersion, earnings revisions and margin breadth.
Reproducible evidence

Four empirical monitors

Each SVG is generated from retrieved public data or asserted company-primary disclosures. Captions state method and limitations.

Normalized adjusted-close lines for SPY, RSP, IWM and QQQ from July 15 through August 7, 2026.
Breadth/leadership. Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, rebased to 100. ETF proxies are not constituent-level breadth and can be distorted by short squeezes, sector weights and dividends.
CCC and lower high-yield option-adjusted spread compared with broad high-yield spread through August 6, 2026.
Credit segmentation. ICE BofA OAS via FRED. Public index spreads do not reveal private-credit marks, issuer-level refinancing risk or all derivatives.
Monthly payroll changes, participation rate and job openings through the latest releases available by August 9, 2026.
Labor/policy monitor. BLS series via FRED. Payrolls and JOLTS are revised; June JOLTS lags July payrolls, and the Aug. 28 benchmark estimate may alter the level.
Four company disclosure cards showing selected AI demand and capital or profitability burdens.
AI demand versus capital absorption. Figures asserted against retrieved SEC/IR releases. Periods, definitions and business mixes differ; the panel cannot rank firms or establish valuation.
Dependency-aware synthesis

Convergence and divergence

Commentator agreement is shown separately from independent corroboration.

Labor lost momentum

Commentary: Gareth discussed policy repricing after weak jobs

Independent check: BLS payrolls/revisions + JOLTS

Boundary: Independent official data confirm the labor facts, not his market forecast

Monitor: Aug. benchmark; claims; payrolls; participation

AI demand and capex coexist

Commentary: Jordi, All-In, Chris and Gavin emphasized demand/buildout

Independent check: Palantir, Amazon, SpaceX and CoreWeave disclosures show selected demand and capital intensity

Boundary: Company corroboration is issuer-specific; commentator agreement is separate

Monitor: Backlog conversion; utilization; FCF; credit

Breadth improved, but leadership remains mixed

Commentary: Jordi called broadening/new highs

Independent check: ETF proxies all rose; QQQ led the week, while RSP led since July 15

Boundary: Proxy evidence is supportive, not constituent breadth proof

Monitor: Equal-weight/small-cap follow-through; advance/decline

Credit calm is not uniform

Commentary: Jordi emphasized weak-tail credit

Independent check: CCC OAS 10.17% vs broad HY 2.71%

Boundary: Independent public-credit data show segmentation; private credit remains opaque

Monitor: CCC/B/BB/CDX; defaults; private marks

AI selloff as leverage cleanup

Commentary: Jordi, All-In, Chris and Gavin discussed crowding/deleveraging

Independent check: Selected demand filings did not show a broad demand collapse

Boundary: Causal accounts share dependencies; bottom call unproven

Monitor: Factor vol; forced selling; new lows; revisions

Physical constraints matter

Commentary: Jordi, Peter, Michael and WOLF emphasized power/memory/robotics

Independent check: Selected filings show large capex/power commitments

Boundary: No independent proof of the full winner basket or timelines

Monitor: Power delivery; memory pricing; paid deployments

Software displacement timing diverges

Commentary: All-In emphasized AI pressure; Chris stressed incumbent distribution and slow transition

Independent check: Palantir is one strong operating case, not category proof

Boundary: Genuine commentator divergence; empirical cohort work needed

Monitor: NRR; churn; pricing; AI-product revenue

Policy credibility and scarce assets

Commentary: Jordi linked yen intervention/fiscal stress to gold and Bitcoin

Independent check: Joint intervention event is reported; asset implication is not corroborated

Boundary: Same commentary chain must not be counted twice

Monitor: Real yields; dollar; flows; official operation data

Technical risk signals

Commentary: Gareth supplied levels and low-VIX caution

Independent check: Some levels/ranges time-matched; geometry and forecast skill not validated

Boundary: Single-source technical method

Monitor: Prospective scoring with fixed confirmation/expiry

High-impact theses

What survives compression

Labor and policy

Negative July payroll growth and large prior-month revisions increase downside-growth risk, but 4.1% unemployment and 3.2% wage growth do not establish recession. A divided Fed had not begun easing.

Breadth and credit

Participation extended beyond one index, but QQQ still led the week. Broad high yield looked calm while CCC stress remained severe. “Risk-on” therefore needs a quality qualifier.

AI demand and capital

Palantir, Amazon, SpaceX and CoreWeave disclosures show real demand in selected AI businesses. They also show that capex, financing and cash conversion must be analyzed issuer by issuer.

Commentary discipline

Visser supplies measurable regime hypotheses; Camillo’s broad end-user ROI test is useful; Soloway’s levels require prospective validation. Leverage models, manipulation allegations and unsupported MRVL consensus stay out.

Source notes

Sources

Primary/official sources anchor empirical claims; commentary is labeled and timestamped in the board.

  1. [1] Jordi Visser — The AI Crash Is Over. Here's What Comes Next
  2. [2] Jordi Visser — Situational Awareness, Hyperscaler Earnings and Warsh
  3. [3] Pomp Podcast — Jordi Visser on Bitcoin, Fed, AI and Physical AI
  4. [4] All-In Podcast — Chip Stocks Crash and AI Pacing
  5. [5] WOLF Financial — Humanoid Robot Boom
  6. [6] All-In Podcast — Google AI, SpaceX, SaaS and China AI
  7. [7] BLS — Employment Situation, July 2026
  8. [8] BLS — JOLTS, June 2026
  9. [9] Federal Reserve — July 29, 2026 FOMC Statement
  10. [10] Reuters — Japan and U.S. Joint Yen Intervention
  11. [11] Palantir — Q2 2026 Earnings Release via SEC
  12. [12] SpaceX — Q2 2026 Earnings Release via SEC
  13. [13] CoreWeave — Q1 2026 Results
  14. [14] FRED — ICE BofA CCC and Lower U.S. High Yield OAS
  15. [15] Moonshots Episode 274 — Space and Robotics
  16. [16] Moonshots Episode 275 — Open Weights and AI Competition
  17. [17] Michael Sikand — Asymmetric Investing
  18. [19] Federal Acquisition Regulation 52.204-25 — Covered Telecommunications and Video Surveillance
  19. [20] Gareth Soloway — Weak Jobs Report Triggers Rally, Gold & Silver Surge
  20. [21] CME FedWatch — September 16, 2026 probabilities
  21. [22] CME Group — FedWatch methodology
  22. [23] FRED — S&P 500 daily observations, Aug. 3–7, 2026
  23. [25] FRED — CBOE VIX daily close, Aug. 3–6, 2026
  24. [26] Yahoo Finance — S&P 500 historical data
  25. [27] Yahoo Finance — Gold Dec. 2026 futures historical data
  26. [28] Yahoo Finance — Silver Sep. 2026 futures historical data
  27. [29] The Iced Coffee Hour — Chris Camillo emergency stock-market investors
  28. [30] Amazon — Q2 2026 Results
  29. [32] ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED)
  30. [33] All Employees, Total Nonfarm (FRED/BLS)
  31. [34] Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (FRED/BLS)
  32. [36] Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (FRED/BLS)
  33. [37] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Historical Data
  34. [38] Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF Historical Data
  35. [39] iShares Russell 2000 ETF Historical Data
  36. [40] Invesco QQQ Trust Historical Data

Conclusion. The week’s strongest signal is not a trade—it is a research design: monitor labor revisions, participation, weak-tail credit, market breadth, and issuer-level AI cash conversion together. No one series or commentator resolves the regime.